September Tidings

I am a lousy footbal lprognosticator. Which is why this past weekend, the NFL pool which I join my daughter in was horrible. That’s mainly because I don’t see what others obviously see. And which is why I don’t dare go into any fantasy teams in any sport—I would suck at that too.

My first error is always the most basic. I let my emotions carry me when I decide what to do about the New York Jets. A season ticket holder since 1977, I have seen only glimpses of good teams during my tenure. The present team isn’t one of those good teams. Nowhere near good.

Yet I went with the Jets over Carolina, because I thought that new QB “phenom” Zach Wilson was the real deal, and Sam Darnold, the former incumbent at Florham Park, was not going to get better. Wrong. 

Four years of work in the NFL has a direct effect on a QB of even modest talent like Darnold. Compared to a kid out of college, no mater how good his pedigree, one should go with the established veteran. 

Darnold needed a change in environment. The Jets were poorly coached during his time there, and the supporting cast was mediocre. Not that it is much better now. 

Also, Darnold benefits from having Christian Mc Caffery, the former Stanford stalwart, as his top running back and very able receiver. Wilson has no one of that caliber on his squad. Nor did Darnold when he was a Jet. 

The Carolina defense is bigger and quicker than the Jets defense. Wilson was harassed throughout the game. He made some good plays overall and actually brought the Jets within 8 of the Panthers.

In the end, there was too little firepower for the Jets, a very average defense and the Panthers were simply the better team. I kind of knew this but I wanted the new kid to win and give Jets fans some real hope. For at least until this week. 

That’s when the first of two games with the New England Patriots occurs. No matter how down a Patriots team might be—ergo last year’s squad which had Cam Newton at QB instead of the ageless wonder, Tom Brady—the Jets seemingly hardly ever beat the Patriots. 

New England leads the overall series 69-54-1, which dates back to 1961, when the pair were original members of the American Football League. Believe it or not, in 1999 into 2001, NYJ actually had a four game winning streak versus Bill Belichick and company. Otherwise, NE has a 33-8 record in games against the Jets, with a current winning streak of 10.

This is not your standard New England team. The Pats failed to make the playoffs last season. Now they are led by the highly touted rookie Mac Jones, formerly  of the University of Alabama and strongly recommended to Bill Belichick by his good friend Nick Sabin, the Crimson Tide Head Coach. 

In last week’s matchup of two great Alabama QB’s, Jones lost at home to Miami and Tua Tagovailoa by a score of 17-16. Tua went 16-27 with 1 TD and 1 INT. Jones put up very good numbers, going 29-39 for 281 yards and threw for 1 TD. 

Neither team is a world-beater. If the Dolphins and Patriots hadn’t played each other, the AFC East could have gone 0-4 in the first week. 

Yet I am picking the Patriots to beat the Jets this Sunday at Met Life Stadium largely on the lack of a credible running game for New York and a better defense for New England. Besides, I don’t think that NYJ is quite ready to break the winning streak of the Patriots. 

Since it is a divisional weekend, surpassingly 0-1 Buffalo travels to Florida to meet Tua and company. Buffalo was hands down the favorite of the experts to win the AFC East. Except nobody told the Pittsburgh Steelers, who came to upstate New York and convincingly defeated Kathy Hochul’s favorite team—yes, New Yorkers, your Governor attended the season opener in Orchard Park, as to quote her: “I love the Bills and the Bills are here to stay.” The last potion of her remark refers to the ongoing battle for a new stadium for New York’s only pro football team.

Anyway, despite the hype over QB Josh Allen and how well the Bills fared last year, I have picked the Dolphins to win their home opener. I don’t know that the AFC East is that good, and the winner could win maybe 10 games and afford to lose two early. 

Thursday night’s game involved the Giants and Redskins in the NFC East. 3 of 4 teams lost their opening games, with only the surprising Philadelphia Eagles coming away winners. Dallas played very well against Tampa Bay. The Giants were pathetic at home losing badly to Denver, a solid but certainly not spectacular team. Washington lost to the Chargers, a pretty good club, when aging QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, he of Harvard and the Jets among the plethora of teams he has led, suffered a hip injury. 

Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley showed little last Sunday. With the short week and travel, I expected once more to see very little from Joe Jones’ team. 

Conversely, I can see the Washington Football Team in the hunt for the NFC East title—Dallas has already lost some key players and I don’t know how good the Eagles and Jalen Hurts really are. So I went with Taylor Heinicke and the WFT to win. It took until the final seconds, with a huge miscue by the Giants on a missed FG attempt, but the WFT emerged victorious. 

I didn’t pick Dallas to win because they journey to So-Fi Stadium to take on the Chargers. Every team in the AFC West (and NFC West too) won last week. I saw no reason to buck that trend. 

Similarly, I picked the Chiefs to win in Baltimore, largely on the fact that Patrick Mahomes II is undefeated in his career in September, the Ravens are desperate on offense and defense and QB Lamar Jackson is trying to do too much. I am also going against the Raiders, who downed the Ravens on Monday night, largely because of the 10:00 am start in Pittsburgh—and they are playing a very talented Steelers team. 

As an aside, way to go Derek Carr. The Raiders QB disputed the sacred “Immaculate Reception” by Franco Harris against Oakland as being complete. He belongs in the Kyrie Irving Hall of Shame—you recall that Irving related that the Earth is flat. 

I have also picked a lot of winners from last week to keep it up this week. The Saints won a “home” game played in Jacksonville against the Packers , with the maligned James Winston coming up big in a steamrolling of Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay mates. 

Too bad Rodgers didn’t get the Jeopardy hosting gig; but he was out of his league compared to Mayim Bialik and Ken Jennings, the current duo in charge of the iconic TV show. The bigger questions are whether Rodgers is losing it at age 38; does he want to play anymore in Green Bay given his acrimony with management; and is this a good GB team? I picked the Lions to win at Lambeau Field— Detroit is a better team with Jared Goff now out of LA and they gave the 49’ers a big scare in a comeback attempt last Sunday. Plus Detroit is 3-3 in its last 6 games in Green Bay, even if the Pack leads the series 104-72-7.

I also like Cleveland’s chances to bounce back against the Texans. Houston beat up on a bad Jacksonville team. I thought Trevor Lawrence would play better and Urban Meyer might succeed at the pro level. Wrong choice in selecting the Jags over the Texans. 

Likewise, I think the Rams and Matthew Stafford are a super team and will down the Colts in Indy. Joe Burrow looked good in an OT thriller win at home versus Minnesota; I think they are a better team than the home standing Bears. My upset special is Philly topping the Niners at the Linc; I am playing a hunch that the Eagles are better than people believe. 

I am going with the Cardinals over the Vikings in Glendale; I think that with the COVID vaccination issues and some spotty Kirk Cousins play at QB, Minnesota is going to struggle a bit. My last selection is Seattle over the depleted Tennessee Titans. Because Russell Wilson is that good.  

On ESPN2, the Monday Night Football game has an alternative telecast starring the Manning brothers. It is cutting edge stuff, deep in football, anecdotes, humor and humanity. Check it out this Monday night when the Lions and Packers meet—you might really like it. 

College football saw a fairly huge set this past weekend. Oregon rolled into the Horseshoe in Columbus and emerged the victor over a highly-touted Ohio State team. The Buckeyes had struggled the week before at Minnesota, so I guess that is no fluke. 

It is my opinion that the vaunted Big Ten is overrated. Match them against SEC teams and the SEC is going to win. I know that Auburn journeying North to Happy Valley is a rarity. But it is not too improbable that the Tigers will leave State College with a victory over a Penn State team which could win the Big Ten.

I saw that Texas A&M is a 27 point favorite over visiting New Mexico. I am following the Lobos, who were victorious over intra-state rival New Mexico State. I am not a bettor; yet I think New Mexico might give A&M fits, especially when they are looking ahead to the SEC schedule, which begins with a contest at #22 Arkansas. The #7 Aggies have a 41-10 rip over Kent State and struggled last week at Colorado, eking out a 10-7 win. 

Rutgers did win at Syracuse in an ugly game. This week Delaware, #7 in the FCS rankings, comes to SHI Stadium. This is the proverbial trap game for RU; the next game is at #25 Michigan. RU leads the series which began in 1901 by a 15-12-3 record. The two schools have not met since 1973, when the Scarlet Knights recorded a 24-7 victory. 

In the last 10 matchups, which covers a period from 1961 to 1973, the Blue Hens are 6-4. I remember how difficult it was for RU to down the David Nelson-Tubby Raymond coached teams. 

Head Coach Greg Schaino must have his team maintain their focus to win this battle. Delaware’s two wins are at Maine and at home versus St. Francis. After all, 9 FCS teams have beaten FBS teams, including Florida State inexplicably losing at home to Jacksonville State University the week after nearly upsetting Notre Dame. Be careful, RU. 

The Yankees are again punishing me. After losing the series to the Mets over the weekend, the team rebounded with late heroics in a makeup game against Minnesota on Monday, then won two in Baltimore. But they couldn’t win the finale, dropping a 10 inning affair after heading into the 9th inning with a one run lead, only to surrender the tying run on a wild pitch with a full count and 2 outs. 

There are 15 games left. Toronto is playing exceptional ball now that they are back in Canada. Vlad Guerrero, Jr. is leading MLB in home runs and batting average. He has a ton of runs batted in, too. I realize that Shohei Ohtani is the AL M.V.P. front runner for his incredible exploits. Guerrero is the one player, on a team which may make the playoffs, whose performance outshines Ohtani at the plate. Plus Ohtani has been shut down from pitching for the remainder of the season due to soreness. Don’t cede the award just yet to Ohtani. Look at the numbers.

The St. Louis Cardinals have come from deep in the pack to now claim an N.L. Wild Card spot for the moment. Suddenly red hot, the Redbirds are just ahead of NL Central rival Cincinnati along with San Diego and Philadelphia for the second Wild Card spot. The final series of the season puts the Cardinals at the Dodgers, with huge implications as to who plays where. LAD is still chasing the Giants and could conceivably catch them, although SFG has put together a 9-1 run to blunt the LAD 7-3 surge in the last 10 games. 

Things get kind of fun around now. Even if you are a Yankees fan wondering what the heck is going on. Football, college football and baseball. All together again.

These are September tidings.