A Wee Bit Early To Project

     Major League Baseball has reached the next to last weekend  of June; Summer came upon us earlier this week. It is time to take a look at the MLB standings thus far. Identifying the duds is easy. Seeing who might make the playoffs in October could be a bit harder.

     We can throw out the Philadelphia Phillies. They aren't going anywhere. It seems to be endemic in Philly that the teams aren't too good--see the Eagles, Flyers and Exhibit A--the Sixers, although the latter did pick up the No. 1 pick in the recent NBA Draft.  And the Flyers came away with a nice consolation in the NHL Draft--a highly-prized forward at the No. 2 slot. I digress.

     Rule out the San Francisco Giants. Once world beaters with catcher Buster Posey and   big game pitcher Madison Bumgarner, the Giants were perennially in the World Series. But with Bumgarner's injury, the fortunes of the Giants have nose-dived.

     Also exclude the Giants' Bay Area companion, the Oakland A's. Constantly interjecting youth into the lineup, they are perhaps a year of two away from becoming a contender for a playoff spot. At least Northern Californians can revel in the Golden State Warriors 2nd NBA title in the past 3 years.

     Another West Coast team with no chance are the San Diego Padres. They are marginally better than the Giants. Cincinnati is not going to contend either. They are young and rebuilding.

     Teetering at the edge of irrelevance are a number of teams. Two of those teams can be classified as major disappointments. The Detroit Tigers have fallen mightily. Miguel Cabrera is having an awful year by his lofty standards and the pitching just isn't there (their best pitcher has been in Washington with the Nationals for a couple of years). Then there are the New York Mets. Major injuries riddling the vaunted pitching staff and a lack of production by the big bats of Cespedes, Walker and Granderson have left the Mets far behind the N.L. East-leading Washington.

     Miami cannot not find itself and is still dealing with the hangover of the late season death of pitching ace Jose Fernandez. At least the Marlins host the All Star Game next month. Atlanta has a nice, new stadium in suburban Cobb County and the hopes that the return of the injured Freddie Freeman to the lineup, albeit at third base, might interject them back into the race against the Nationals. The Chicago White Sox are not very good at 32-41; there might be a managerial change upcoming.

     There are a number of teams who can contend despite miserable starts. The N.L. Central is the perfect example. The surprising Milwaukee Brewers are in the lead, but only with a 40-37 record. St. Louis, off to a rough and unusual start now 7 games below .500 are only 5 games behind the Brewers. Pittsburgh, enduring suspensions and inconsistent hitting and pitching, is a notch better than the Cardinals and hope that star Andrew Mc Cutcheon remains hot and carries the team until the other bats join in. Defending World Champion Chicago is a barely above .500 team; still that leaves the Cubbies only a half a game behind the Brew Crew for first place in the N.L. Central. Most prognosticators expect that the Cubs will get their act together in the second half of the season and run away from the pack. I think it is more like limp past the rest of the Division.

     So many other teams are in the thick of the race. Despite the New York Yankees great and unexpected start riding the Aaron Judge gargantuan home run phenomenon plus some standout pitching from youngster Luis Severino and veteran C. C. Sabathia now on the DL, the Boston Red Sox have now drawn even with the Yankees after a morose start. Even with Boston projected in the pre-season to win the A.L. East, it will be a battle in the Division, as Tampa Bay is unexpectedly only 2.5 games behind the leaders and the Orioles and Blue Jays are capable of putting a run together and making life harder for the current leaders.

     Looking at the AL Central, the Cleveland Indians, losers to the Cubs in a thrilling 2016 World Series which went into extra innings in Game 7, have overtaken Minnesota to gain control of the Division. While the Twins early start was nice, it is the Kansas City Royals who are making up ground after a bad beginning to the season. Relying on veterans from a 2015 World Series win, Eric Hosmer, Salvatore Perez and Mike Moustakis are back in All Star form, and with Jason Vargas topping MLB pitchers with 11 victories, the resurgent Royals are poised to make a charge at the Indians.

     A three team race has taken shape in the N.L. West. Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles have been the leaders for the entire early season. Ace Clayton Kershaw heads up a good pitching staff and rookie Cody Bellinger is having a better start to his career in terms of homers, with less at bats than even Judge has with the Yankees;  he has slugged a record 22 homers in his first 52 games to Judge's 25 in nearly 70 contests. Shortstop Corey Seager is putting together another outstanding year and the Dodgers are on a 9 game winning streak and 14 wins in the last 15 games in a effort to distance themselves from the D-backs and the Rockies.

    That leaves two teams who have charged out to commanding leads in their respective Divisions. Washington maintains a 9 game lead over the Braves. Led by the mercurial Bryce Harper, ex-Met standout Daniel Murphy and former Detroit Tiger Matthew Scherzer's pitching, it is unlikely that the Nationals will be caught. They still need to shore up the bullpen by making a trade for much needed help to survive the season, let alone the playoffs.

     Houston has left the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers in its wake, jumping out to a 12 game lead. Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve form an impressive middle infield duo who can hit and field. Outfielder George Springer has mashed 21 homers and Josh Reddick is making diving catches. The Astros need to get pitching ace Dallas Keuchel back and healthy in order to make a deep run in the playoffs. I don't see them surrendering the Division; the Astros are for real.

     All of the leading teams have some flaws and injuries will occur. Right now, the Astros and Dodgers have the best records in the American and National Leagues. If things stay the way they are, it would not be a surprise to see them in the World Series. Many other worthy clubs will have a say in the finish to the 2017 season. Can Washington win a couple of rounds? Will the Cubs run roughshod over the opposition? Who will survive the Cleveland-KC battle? Are Arizona and Colorado legitimate N.L. Wild Card teams? Who will come out of the A.L. East--New York with its powerful bats or Boston with its sluggers and top-notch pitching? Or are there a coupe of teams lurking, awaiting one big surge to overtake a Division leader or sneak into the Wild Card picture?

     It is a wee bit early, just before MLB reaches the halfway point in the season, to anoint anyone as the prohibitive favorite. This is not a scenario like the recently completed NBA season and playoffs where the Warriors and Cavaliers were EXPECTED  to vie for the title. No, the MLB season seemingly is more like the NHL--anyone can win--witness the Pittsburgh Penguins victory in the playoffs to retain the Stanley Cup and any one team can, like the Nashville Predators, make a concerted effort to make the Finals.

     One thing is certain--this is why they play all of the games. And it will be fun to watch how the remainder of the season unfolds.