Bad Bracketology

                                                       Bad Bracketology

     The Final Four for the 2017 NCAA Men's Division I Championship has been established. The schools heading to Phoenix for games next Saturday and Monday are: Gonzaga University and the University of North Carolina, both no. 1 seeds; the University of Oregon, a number 3 seed; and the University of South Carolina, who is the "Cinderella" entry, coming from a 7th seed in the East bracket.

     68 teams have played in the tournament. 64 have been eliminated. Two no. 1 seeds did not survive--defending champ Villanova went down to the Wisconsin Badgers, and Kansas, who fell to Oregon in the Midwest Regional final. Three of four no. 2 seeds were eliminated before the Regional finals, the lone exception being Kentucky, losers to North Carolina on a heartbreaking shot with 0.3 left on the clock.
Oregon was the lone no. 3 seed to advance to a Regional final.

     Media critics thought that the Tournament Committee did a lousy job of seeding. Starting with Wichita State as a no. 10 seed in the South Region;  Michigan was a no. 7 seed and Rhode Island, a no. 11 seed in the Midwest Region; and Wisconsin, a no. 8 seed in the East along with S.M.U. being a no. 6 seed in the same region, the pundits claimed that the Tournament officials did not properly assess the teams given their regular season records. The fact that South Carolina made it to the Final Four was even greater evidence that the Committee got it wrong.

     Of course, those critics would put a spin on this "calamity" by noting that the NCAA Championships would always be known for underdogs providing thrills by beating opponents who, by subjective seeding, were rated to be better than the lower-seeded team who won. This country roots for underdogs, so those opting to participate in bracket contests, legal and illicit, understood that there were always going to be a fair number of upsets in each early round. The expectations would be that the high seeds would prevail as the games progressed. Nearly every expert touted their solemn belief that they had the right bracket choices.

     So it comes as no surprise this morning to read that a mere 657 out of 18,797,085, or .0003 percent of the entries in the ESPN Bracket Challenge correctly had the Final Four of Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon and South Carolina. What is surprising is that 657 people actually had this combination. Moreover, with a no. 3 and a no. 7 seed in the mix, how could they have foreseen the carnage of higher seeds, along with a slew of intermediate upsets? I guess that the preponderance of those 657 came via South Carolina fans. From those 657 survivors, I wonder how many, if indeed any, actually had a perfect bracket--that they picked all of the games correctly to this juncture?

     With all this in mind, I did my annual bracket. Which was a miserable failure. I selected only 36 winners, with my Final Four of UCLA, Duke, Arizona and Louisville not even making a Regional Final. I had only Gonzaga making a Regional Final, but there I had them losing to no. 2 seed Arizona.  I thought Arizona was good enough to make it to the Championship game where UCLA would prevail. Plenty of others chose UCLA based on the play of superior guards Lonzo Ball and Bryce Alford, son of Coach Steve Alford. Many others probably had Duke winning, but a poor performance coupled with being unlucky to have a game in Greenville, South Carolina against South Carolina where the Gamecocks fans outnumbered the Blue Devils contingent. Additionally, I believe that many Kansas faithful thought their team would make the Final Four, since the Jayhawks were playing their Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games in Kansas City, just across the border between the states and only 40 miles from the KU campus in Lawrence.

     I can go on and on about who chose what teams to win or lose in their brackets and for what reasons. That is the lure of picking the brackets. Most times, it is for a prize--whether it is for ESPN or simply an office pool. And a lot of it is for ego-- deciding who is a better prognosticator/expert...for at least this season.

     Understanding the risks involved, I entered a contest this year. A very small one. I was pitting my expertise from years and years of watching college basketball against that of my wife, who went to Rutgers games with me and watched Pardon The Interruption on ESPN. The prize was simple--the winner picks a 2 night getaway and does all the planning. The loser will only learn of the locale near the time to depart. Thus there was a very small downside to this competition. While she is quite the competitor, my wife would not have felt as humbled if she had lost as I would have become had she won. Because I believed I knew something more about college basketball.

     Although I won this challenge by either one or two games through somehow arriving at 36 wins, depending upon the outcome of the North Carolina- Oregon game (she picked UNC), I learned that, at least for this season, I was not such a hot shot. My wife's Final Four consisted of Duke, Notre Dame, Kansas and North Carolina. She had gone with two no. 1 seeds, a no. 2 seed (Duke) and a no. 5 seed (Notre Dame). She fared better than me with North Carolina making it to the Final Four as opposed to my coming up empty with my Final Four picks. Kudos to her.

     I prevailed only because I picked better on Days 1 and 2. My score was 26 out of 32 while she came in at 21 out of 32. Yet yesterday, had Kansas beaten Oregon, she could have tied me if North Carolina made it to the Finals. She stayed with three no. 1 seeds and all four no. 2 seeds reaching the Regional Finals. Almost a much more appropriate concept than my going with two no. 1 seeds--Villanova and Gonzaga to attain the Elite Eight.

     My wife will still have a rooting interest in North Carolina making it to the Finals. While I do like the Tar Heels, I will watch with her to see if first timers Gonzaga or South Carolina reach the Championship game. Oregon is compelling in that it is 78 years since the Ducks made the Final Four--in 1939 they won the inaugural NCAA Championship. North Carolina will be participating in its record 20th Final Four.

     Should the Carolinas play each other, the hostility between the schools still exists. Both were opponents in the Southern Conference and became founding members of the Atlantic Coast Conference, of which North Carolina still is a member. South Carolina won the ACC championship and the automatic bid to the 1970 NCAA Tournament under Coach Frank McGuire, a transplanted New Yorker who in fact coached North Carolina to the 1957 NCAA title in a huge win against gigantic center Wilt Chamberlain and his Kansas teammates.

     South Carolina basketball success more than bothered the North Carolina members of the ACC. "Tobacco Road" crowds were exceptionally hostile to South Carolina teams when they visited. Resentment and anger based upon on the court success plus the decidedly unfriendly nature of athletic directors and coaches in the ACC along with discrepancies in academic eligibility standards caused omnipotent Coach Mc Guire to force his superiors to mistakenly decide to withdraw South Carolina from the ACC in 1971. Subsequent inquiries into returning to the ACC after Mc Guire left South Carolina were rebuked. South Carolina only has resurrected its once storied athletic programs upon entering the Southeastern Conference in 1991.

     In football, UNC  has had the better of the series, with a 34-19-4 record. After South Carolina left the ACC, the teams have met on the gridiron only 13 times in 46 years. Recently the teams have played in a "neutral" site--Charlotte. This annual brawl was as popular and vitriolic as North Carolina playing in state rivals Duke, North Carolina State and Wake Forest, if not greater.

     Here's some reasons why. Both schools refer to themselves as"Carolina". They each have a trademark for that name, which adorns jerseys and other athletic apparel, along with the football end zones. North Carolina fans claim the nickname because UNC was the first public university in the United States. The Province of Carolina was established in North Carolina, yet its government seat was in Charles Town (now Charleston, South Carolina). Gamecock fans counter that South Carolina was the first to declare statehood.
     The debate continues even away from the arenas. There remains a North Carolina bias towards South Carolina--even this year, after 26 years of wrangling,  the border between the states was redrawn by 50-100' to incorporate about 50 more people into North Carolina. One family has its house literally divided--the living room and kitchen are in South Carolina while the bedrooms the children sleep in are in North Carolina. That particular circumstance creates a whole set of problems, from health insurance to schooling.

     Undeniably, it is novel and exciting that Gonzaga, from the West Coast Conference, a non-power conference, has become a powerhouse in the past few years and now has made its first Final Four and the record 78 year drought of Oregon between Final Fours is equally compelling, I am rooting for an all-Carolina final.

     Besides a little border tension, I am magnanimously pulling for my wife to be half-correct with her title game choice. I can wisely let the disharmony of March Madness extend down South and in Arizona for a day or two this weekend. Just not in her house.