Friday, July 1, 2022

A Different Kind Of "Moneyball"

I’m running a little late this week. I had a whole lot to talk about and then…wham…things started happening which totally redirected my thoughts for this week. Such is the nature of sports at the end of June and coming up on the Fourth of July. 


First and foremost was the sudden move by the two best-known collegiate athletic programs in the West. UCLA and USC have bolted from the weaker Pac 12 to join the Big Ten. With that lightning flash, the entire major college athletic scene was upended. 


This is principally a football move. The Pac 12, while a Power 5 conference, has lately been unable to get its schools into the College Football Playoffs. 


At USC, football is king. While UCLA is more known for its basketball program prominence, begun by John Wooden, the Wizard of Westwood, the Bruins have had some success on the gridiron and play their home games at the very large Rose Bowl in Pasadena. 


What this sudden move is really about is what it is always about. Money. The Big Ten is in negotiations with FOX Sports for a new deal which could reach in excess of $1billion for its duration. The share California schools would receive would way surpass anything that they might have received from the Pac 12 media rights. 


That, coupled with a window of opportunity to leave without being financially penalized, was too great of an attraction for the Trojans and Uclans. Forget the long-standing ties with Stanford and Cal-Berkeley. To slightly paraphrase a radio advertisement from the NY Metro area and my youth—money talks, anyone can walk. Which is why the two schools are walking the walk, joining the prestigious Big Ten in 2024.


Sure, there are plenty of ramifications for scheduling and for teams in sports like basketball and baseball to absorb. Many have openly questioned why those schools might want to make road trips to the Midwest and East Coast in the dead of winter versus visiting Arizona or Northern California. The lure of playing Rutgers at MSG might be a good reason? 


Speaking of Rutgers and, for that matter Maryland, did those schools ever step in it by joining the Big Ten. Ditto Nebraska and Penn State, although they have more ties to the Midwestern heart of the conference by their locations. 


For RU, which has shown a great leap in its sports programs, they couldn’t have had a better week. Besides being the beneficiaries of this incredible move by two iconic universities, the RU program will receive the infusion of a ton of cash with the next TV contract, and, the State of New Jersey provided $100 million in capital improvement money for Jersey MIke’s Arena and for a state-of-the-art football building. 


Immediately, the speculation has begun on how much more change in the conference landscape might occur. There is very little doubt from the pundits I have read that there might be more seismic changes on he horizon. 


Is the Big Ten going to be fine with 16 teams, like the SEC? Or might the SEC not be finished now, even with Texas and Oklahoma coming into the fold? With the oodles of money available from TV, who is to say that Notre Dame, Duke and North Carolina aren’t above bolting the ACC? Or the SEC even jettisoning members like Vanderbilt, which constantly under performs in football? What about the Big 12—would Kansas leave the conference to play in a super basketball league with the likes of UCLA—markedly two of the four greatest programs, which would be only enhanced by Duke and UNC coming aboard? Plus never forget Cal and Stanford, who would be academic giants in the Big Ten. 


Will the Big 12, ACC and Pac 12 suffer fatal losses in the wake of the ongoing cash grab? Or, perhaps the ones who have all the cash flowing to them, will be done with the poaching (we don’t exactly know whose idea it was for the two schools to apply for membership—which they wouldn’t have done without a green light from the Big Ten member institutions).


Whatever the reasons, this is a story which will resonate for months to come. How do you dare not think of USC versus Rutgers at Met Life Stadium?


Story number two involves baseball. As much as I said last week that the New York Yankees are for real—which they are—right now I don’t think that they are the best team in baseball. For in the last nine days, a scheduling rarity allowed me to watch the Houston Astros. 


The Astros faced the Mets in Houston and swept the Metsies, who remain in first place in the NL East. Then the Astros split a four game series at Yankee Stadium, neutralizing the team with the best record in the two middle contests, which included a group no hitter on Saturday which followed a brilliant pitching gem by their ace, Justin Verlander. 


But for two come-from-behind walk off hits by Aaron Judge, the odds on AL M.V.P. favorite (keep watching Shohei Ohtani, the reigning M.V.P.—he might have a say in the outcome of this year’s award), Houston could easily have taken all of the games from the Yankees. Pretty heady stuff. 


To conclude the fortnight in New York City, the Astros vanquished the Mets on Tuesday and Wednesday, which included another sterling effort by Verlander, who now leads the majors with 10 wins. 7-2 against the leaders of the AL East and NL West. That’s more than impressive. 


The loss of shortstop Carlos Correa to the Twins in free agency has hardly been noticed. Jose Altuve and Jordan Alvarez should be AL All Stars. Same with Verlander. 


The bullpen had its hiccups with the Yankees. But it remains ranked as the top one, with the Yankees right behind them. The young starting pitchers on Houston’s staff shut down the New Yorkers with a modicum of efficiency. 


Maybe this will be the year that Dusty Baker finally manages a team to that elusive World Series win. He is passing Walter Alston on the managerial win list, cementing his bronze plaque in Cooperstown. 


For he has one helluva a team. Which has left the Yankees and Mets scratching their heads on how to reboot their teams to better themselves for the post-season, or in the Mets case, to stay ahead of surging Atlanta. The Mets are looking to get pitching aces Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom back in July; that will help immensely. Hint to the Yankees—Joey Gallo is now 0-26 and his average is down to .167. It is time to give him up in some capacity—a trade along with a young pitcher might net a good and competent outfielder who can hit. Semi-retired Brett Gardner would be a better alternative than Gallo.


The final section is devoted to the NBA. With free agency, astronomical contracts are being offered which boggle the mind.Nikola Jokic of Denver, a two time M.V.P., received a record $264 million supermax extension, with an option in 2027-28 for Jokic to be paid $60 million. The athletic Ja Morant “agreed” to a five year, $231 million supermax rookie extension to stay with Memphis. The list goes on.


Kyrie Irving exercised his option to stay with the Nets for well over $30 million, then unsuccessfully tried to engineer a trade to the Lakers to reunite with Lebron James. The Nets are seemingly through with his antics. 


The biggest domino of them all, Kevin Durant, has demanded a trade to get away of the craziness in Brooklyn. Incredible, since he seemed to be so happy in the Big Apple. 


The rumors abound. Philadelphia, LA or Charlotte for Irving, so that the Nets can clear his humongous salary from their books in addition to the perpetual headache he causes. With Durant, the Lakers, Phoenix, Boston, Toronto, Atlanta, Memphis, even New Orleans have been mentioned as potential destinations for the player considered to be the best on the planet at age 33, and who has a guaranteed four year left on his astronomical contract (probably to be renegotiated).


The haul which the Nets will be seeking will be the largest ever. Reminiscent of the Herschel Walker trade (you might better know him as the Republican U.S.Senate candidate in Georgia), the largest in NFL history, which was nicknamed “The Great Train Robbery.” That involved 18 players and draft picks. 


Durant may achieve success in a short period of time; the Nets may be the team of the future if they do it right. And be rid of two malcontents.


They call the doings of the Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane in the 2002 season “Moneyball.” Great film starring Brad Pitt. The premise was to apply sabermetrics to scout and analyze players for a team with limited budget. Good idea.


From what I am seeing in college and in the NBA, it is a different kind of “Moneyball.”

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